Australia’s “Dialogue” website issued the article title “2022 World Economy: An Important Factors Need Watchless Concerns”, the author is the Associate Professor of the University of Hadzfield, UK, Muhammad Ali Nasil. The full text is extracted as follows:
Is it a year in the 2022 annual economy from the epidemic? With the end of the holiday holiday, this is a major problem that everyone is discussing.
A complex factor is that most of the latest major predictions are released within a few weeks before the O’Ker mutant strains swept around the world. Atmosphere at the time, the economic recovery was indeed in front of him. International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to grow in 2022 to 4.9%, and the expected growth rate of economic cooperation and development organization is 4.5%. These numbers are below 5% to 6% of global growth rates achieved in 2021, but the latter represents the inevitable rebound brought by the economy after the downturn in the 2020 epidemic.
In the current situation, the British Zhicu Economic and Commercial Research Center released a more recent 2022 forecast before Christmas last year. It predicts that the global growth rate will reach 4% this year, and the world economy will create a new high of $ 1 trillion.
Another big unknown is inflation. In 2021, due to the recovery of global economic activities and the global supply chain bottleneck, we saw that inflation suddenly rose sharply. Regarding this inflation will be temporary, there are many arguments, and the central banks of all countries have been withstanding the pressure that ensures inflation does not spirally rising.
To date, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Japan Central Bank have not raised interest rates from extremely low levels. Bank of England follows IMF’s recommendations and raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% in December last year. In addition to increasing company lending costs and improving family mortgage repayment, this has almost no inhibiting inflation or playing other positive effects. Market betting Britain will further raise interest rates, and bet the Fed will also start hike in spring.
However, about inflation is more important to quantify what changes will occur. Quantitative easing is a policy of increasing money supply. In recent years, approximately $ 25 trillion government bonds and other financial assets have been purchased around the world, including approximately $ 9 trillion after new crown epidemic.
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are still implementing quantitative easing policies, and an asset will be added to the balance sheet every month. The Fed is currently gradually reducing the purchase speed, in order to stop purchasing in March. The European Central Bank also expressed the reduction of quantitative easing policies.
Of course, the real problem is how these central banks will do in practice.
Western countries and Russia’s tensions on Ukrainian issues and further upgrades to Russia’s economic sanctions may have an impact on the global economy, especially because Europe’s dependence on Russia’s natural gas.
Regardless of politics, it is clear that Asia will be very important for 2022 global growth prospects. The latest data shows that the scale of major economies such as the third quarter of 2021, the scale of major economies such as the United Kingdom, Japan and the Eurozone is still less than the epidemic. The only major developed economy that has been recovered and restored to the top size of the epidemic is the United States.
On the other hand, China has done very well in the prevention and control of epidemic, and since the second quarter of 2020, its economy has achieved strong growth.