Citi Group economists said that as the central banks from various places tighten the monetary policy and the demand for commodity weakens, the possibility of the world economy falling into recession is close to 50 %. The impact of the supply continues to push high inflation and lower the growth, and many central banks are now raising interest rates, and consumers’ demand for goods is weakening. Historical experience shows that the decline in inflation often allows economic growth to pay a significant price. We believe that the overall probability of economic recession is close to 50 %. The central bank may try to achieve soft landing, but this requires weakening the impact and demand. Citi Group is now expected to increase by 3 % this year, an increase of 2.8 % in 2023.