Due to the significant increase in the number of newly diagnosed cases of the new crown epidemic, it has once again become the focus of the market’s attention, which has shifted the focus to the fight against the epidemic. The recent surge in oil prices, investors choose to close when they get better, plus reports on US crude oil inventories and the number of oil rigs Intensified the negative oil price. On Friday, international oil prices continued their downward trend. US WTI crude oil December futures closed down 99 cents, or 2.41%, to $40.13 per barrel; Brent crude oil January futures closed 75 cents, or 1.72 %, reported 42.78 US dollars/barrel; this week, U.S. oil closed up 8.05% cumulatively, and Bursa oil closed up 8.44% cumulatively.
The number of newly diagnosed new crowns in the United States on the 13th hit a new high, and concerns about the outlook for crude oil demand deepened
According to real-time statistics from Worldometers, as of 06:16 on November 14th, Beijing time, there were 53.66 million confirmed cases of the new coronavirus globally, and 57 countries with more than 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide. There are 10 countries with more than 1 million confirmed cases of new crown worldwide. The latest statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 16:25 on the 13th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States reached 10,693,773, and the number of deaths reached 243,466. In the past 24 hours, there were 180,705 newly confirmed cases in the United States, a record high, with 939 new deaths. On Friday, local time, the New Mexico State government announced that it will start a new round of shutdown policy next Monday, local time, and this round of shutdown will last for two weeks.
Although there is a boost from vaccines, the market will cautiously wait and see
The optimistic remarks of the person in charge of the “Warp Speed” that has accelerated the research on the new crown vaccine boosted market risk appetite. It is estimated that 6% of Americans will be vaccinated by the end of December, and that there will be 20 million U.S. dollars every month thereafter. People are vaccinated. Despite a boost from vaccines, the market will return to rationality and will be cautious on the sidelines. On Wednesday, Biden’s scientific advisers recommended a nationwide blockade of the United States for 4-6 weeks. If Biden succeeds in entering the White House and orders a nationwide blockade for six weeks, oil prices will fall further. However, before deciding who will be sworn in as President of the United States in January next year, the Trump administration stated that it will not impose a blockade on the United States under any circumstances.
The number of oil rigs in the United States has continued to increase for several weeks, although the prospects are promising but untimely
Or because of the optimistic outlook of the market’s energy demand, the number of oil rigs in the United States has continued to increase for 9 weeks. At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Saturday, data released by the US oil service company Baker Hughes shows that as of November 13 During the week, the total number of oil rigs increased by 10 to 236. Previously, it was expected to increase by 4, and the total number of natural gas rigs increased by 2 to 73; the total number of rigs increased by 12 to 312. Yesterday (November 13) EIA reported a substantial increase in crude oil inventories, indicating a slowdown in energy demand. The number of new coronavirus diagnoses in the United States in a single day continues to hit new highs, which intensified people’s concerns about the demand outlook. Time to expand the number of oil rigs is too unsuitable, and it will undoubtedly bring bad news to oil prices.
The speed of U.S. bonds has slowed, and a weaker U.S. dollar is also good for oil prices.
In a report released on Friday, strategists at Bank of France and Pakistan, such as Alex Jekov, stated that the US dollar faces the risk of a slowdown in foreign purchases of US bonds, which will weaken the dollar. Fitch believes that the results of the U.S. election means that the upper limit of any stimulus bill against the epidemic may be $1 trillion; in the current political environment, the efficiency of the U.S. government will face challenges; because the scale of expected fiscal expenditure will not be so The large, long-term U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, coupled with the rise in the stock market and other high-risk assets, making the U.S. dollar continue to bear selling pressure. This momentum may continue. Investors predict that the U.S. dollar will fall further, making the U.S. dollar settlement The oil seems attractive, supporting oil prices below.
In addition, a Libyan oil source said that Libyan oil production has risen to 1.215 million barrels per day. On November 2, Libya’s crude oil production reached 800,000 barrels per day. The rapid increase in just a few days is visible to all and is in line with market expectations. As long as it rises to 1.3 million barrels per day within a month, oil prices will be negative again. The Libyan National Petroleum Company also stated that unless Libya’s output reaches 1.7 million barrels per day, there is a possibility of bargaining with OPEC, and the prospects of the oil market are again facing uncertainty.